The latest Atlantic hurricane on record formed on September 17, 1941. That record goes back to 1851, when early meteorologists relied on shipping vessels for storm reports. As of today, September 17, 2026, not a single hurricane has formed in the Atlantic basin this year.
The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a disturbance in the central subtropical Atlantic with a 40% chance becoming a cyclone within the next week, but it’s extremely unlikely that it will organize by the end of today. That means 2026 has now matched the record for the latest first Atlantic hurricane of the season—and any hurricane that forms from tomorrow onward would set a new record.
The season doesn’t officially end until November 30, so there’s still time for a hurricane to appear. Washington Post meteorologist Ben Noll reported today that October could bring more cyclone-conducive conditions. Still, it’s possible that 2026 could be a year without an Atlantic hurricane. If that turns out to be the case, 2026 will join 1907 and 1914 as the only years in the 175-year record that featured zero hurricanes in the Atlantic.
During a season with conditions that have been as unconducive to Atlantic hurricanes as possible, a relatively more conducive stretch appears likely into October.
Rising air will spread into the Atlantic, encouraging more unsettled conditions — especially in the west. pic.twitter.com/dmdGSgugfa
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) September 17, 2026
Several factors are contributing to this exceptionally quiet Atlantic hurricane season, but a very strong El Niño is the most influential. This event is on the cusp of becoming the strongest El Niño on record.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a recurring climate pattern that shifts weather patterns across the globe. During this warm phase, east-to-west trade winds that usually cause warm water to pile up in the western Pacific slow down. This allows all that warm water to slosh eastward, raising sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
Warmer water and reduced vertical wind shear over the Pacific basin make it easier for tropical storms and hurricanes to take shape. These effects have been clear this summer, as the Pacific basin has been abuzz with storm activity. Meanwhile, El Niño increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic basin, reducing the convection that cyclones need to form.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season anticipated El Niño’s influence, but it’s not the only force at play this year. Repeated intrusions of the Saharan Air Layer—a dry, dusty air mass that forms over the Saharan desert and travels westward across the Atlantic—have robbed the atmosphere above the basin of the moisture that feeds storms.
Growing atmospheric stability over the Atlantic could also be playing a role, according to Noll. This is a long-term trend associated with the human-driven rise of ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.
While this has certainly been an unusual Atlantic hurricane season, no one is complaining, least of all the United States. Here, the vast majority of landfalling hurricanes come from the Atlantic, so the lack of storms this year has prevented destruction, injuries, and deaths. Still, meteorologists urge coastal communities to stay vigilant, as it only takes one powerful cyclone to cause a catastrophe. We may be past the official peak of Atlantic hurricane season, but it’s not over yet.
Source: Gizmodo