The rising cost of memory due to shortages is likely to persist into late 2027, driving higher device prices and lackluster configurations for PCs, tablets, and phones, IDC research manager Jitesh Ubrani told The Register.
“We had assumed this would be primarily a 2026 story. More and more, particularly at CES, we had conversations with folks and they’re saying ‘You won’t find price stability in memory up until maybe late 2027.’ It means that prices will stop rising. Not that they’re going to drop. That’s what we’re hearing,” he told us on Tuesday. “This could be much longer than we had previously anticipated. Not just we at IDC, but we as a collective market.”
The PC market had a strong rebound in 2025, with device shipments totaling 284.7 million, driven by product refreshes and the end of support for Windows 10. The fourth quarter was particularly strong with 76.4 million devices shipped, up 9.6 percent year over year. For the full year, 2025 saw an 8.1 percent rise in PC shipments worldwide.
But part of that success comes from suppliers stockpiling inventory ahead of a looming memory shortage, Ubrani told The Register.
“Ultimately, it ended up far ahead of what anyone had hoped for. And given where things are today, it might be like the last good year we have for the next two years, or maybe even three years,” he said. “Things are kind of getting worse day by day from here on out.”
In November, IDC had already predicted the 2026 PC market could see a year-on-year decline of 2.4 percent, with a more moderate downside scenario putting the drop at 4.9 percent due to tough comparables against the PC surge last year. But a persistent memory supply crunch could push that to the most pessimistic prediction, roughly a 9 percent slide. Other analysts seem to agree it'll be a tough year.
Ubrani said that if 2026 shipments fall by 9 percent, total PC shipments would drop to about 260 million, slightly below 2024's roughly 263.3 million units and close to 2023, "one of the worst years in PC history."
He added 2023 and 2016 had the same volume of shipments with about 260 million.
“2023 was one of the worst because it was after the boom brought about by the pandemic and it was a year where everyone had excess inventory,” he explained. “Now we're potentially getting back to pre-pandemic levels.”
The PCs that do arrive in 2026 are likely to be more expensive with fewer features.
Ubrani said prior to the memory crunch, many vendors considered 16 GB of RAM as the starting point of what would be considered an AI PC. Now, using cloud plus on-device memory, a computer labeled as an "AI PC" could come with less than that.
“You might see instances where a system doesn’t have 16 gigs and they’re still promoted as an AI PC, but it would use this hybrid AI approach, where you can do some on device, but most of it in cloud,” Ubrani said. “The marketing to end users may not say that, and consumers again, can’t really tell the difference, or won't know the difference, but on the enterprise side, you will see the messaging change away from ‘on device AI.’ ”
During their most recent earnings calls, Lenovo, HP, and Dell all reassured investors they were capable of maneuvering through the looming memory shortages, but both Dell and HP said it would mean higher prices.
Dell’s COO Jeff Clarke, who took over leadership of that company’s PC division in 2025, said on the November call that this is the seventh DRAM supply shortage in the last 40 years that he has seen. The last one “of this magnitude” he said was between 2016 and 2017.
“It’s unprecedented. We have not seen costs move at the rate that we’ve seen. And by the way, it’s not unique to DRAM. It’s NAND. It is hard drives, leading edge nodes across the semiconductor network,” he told analysts.
Clarke said higher device costs are on the way, as well as bleaker configurations.
HP CEO Enrique Lores echoed that sentiment during that company’s November earnings call, saying that if the memory market doesn’t improve, expect higher PC costs in the second half of 2026.
Ubrani said Dell, HP, Lenovo, and Apple will face challenges, but their scale and relationship with chipmakers will insulate them. The vendors facing the most peril are smaller players such as Acer, Asus, and MSI.
“Even if they do get the memory, their prices are going to be so high that their finished PCs are going to be so expensive that their customers won’t buy it. So these are real challenges to be had, kind of across the board,” he said. “That’s why, again, a Lenovo, an Apple, they’re in a very good position, but even they’ve mentioned price hikes. So it's going to be a challenging environment going forward.” ®
Source: The register