Chromebooks, the low-cost computing option popular with education buyers, will be squeezed hardest this year as memory prices spiral out of control.
According to the mystics at Omdia, total global PC shipments are on track to decline 12 percent in 2026: desktop PCs by 10 percent to 53.2 million units and laptops by 12 percent to 192.2 million units.
Why? For readers with their heads in the clouds, an AI-driven memory shortage is plaguing the entire industry by inflating the price of the vital components, with a knock-on effect on systems.
The price of mainstream memory and storage configurations jumped between $90 and $165 since the start of last year, a financial pressure that forced PC brands to ditch promotions, hike purchase prices, and adjust specs, Omdia says. Memory prices are estimated to rise a further 60 percent in Q1.
Lenovo, HP, and Dell et al are prioritizing production to higher-margin devices as lower-margin kit has less room to absorb rising costs. At the same time, buyers of sub-$500 computers are more sensitive to price fluctuations, and are therefore more likely to delay purchases or reduce the size of orders.
Omdia expects the entry-level bracket to experience the biggest slowdown. ChromeOS platforms are forecast to shrink 27.6 percent year-on-year in 2026, compared to 12.1 percent for Windows and 4.8 percent for macOS.
"The supply-driven downturn in 2026 will not affect all PC platforms equally," said Kieren Jessop, research manager at Omdia.
"Chrome devices face the steepest decline at 28 percent, as the education-heavy platform is particularly exposed to tighter component allocation, lower margins, and the discontinuation of some memory and storage products."
Apple's "vertically integrated supply chain and premium positioning" mean it is comparatively sheltered from memory dynamics.
The forecast 12 percent drop in PC shipments, however, is based on an expected minimum 60 percent rise in memory and storage prices during the first quarter, with the hope that subsequent increases throughout 2026 will moderate as pressure eases. Things could deteriorate, pushing PC shipments toward a 15 percent decline, possibly even greater.
The situation is evolving rapidly, as evidenced by reports this week that claim NAND flash prices have jumped by as much as 50 percent overnight, which could have a further impact on system pricing if it turns out to be more than just a blip in the market.
Hostilities in the Middle East are also a factor. The US and Israeli attacks on Iran have introduced "substantial uncertainty" for international transport and regional market growth. This could cause further complications, depending on how long it persists, Omdia notes.
The cause of all this is the boom in AI infrastructure, which has led memory chip makers to reallocate manufacturing capacity to output more of the high-margin components for AI servers and GPUs, rather than the everyday memory chips needed for PCs and other devices.
This was noted in a separate report today from analyst firm Context, which says the AI infrastructure investment surge is beginning to reshape the economics of the global hardware market.
The European IT distribution market grew 5.2 percent during 2025, it says, outperforming the 3.6 percent originally forecast. This is expected to slow to 2.1 percent this year, as supply constraints and pricing pressures linked to the AI market affect hardware availability elsewhere.
"The demand for specialized components used in AI infrastructure is pulling production capacity away from other parts of the hardware market," said Context senior analyst Aaron Smith.
"It is beginning to influence how the entire hardware market behaves: from supply chains and pricing to the way organisations prioritise their IT investments." ®
Source: The register