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F1 2024 Japanese Grand Prix - what is the weather forecast and will rain affect the race?

The Japanese Grand Prix returns to the Suzuka Circuit for the fourth race of the season. The event - which is normally held later in the year - is notorious for wet conditions that can make for an interesting race.

The Japanese GP is being hosted in April, the earliest the event has ever been held after consistently being hosted later in the season. The race has been brought forward to be more logistically efficient along with the Chinese GP which takes place in two weeks' time.

The event coincides with Japan’s cherry blossom season and is also expected to see some significant changes to the usual weather conditions. Temperatures are expected to be cooler for the grand prix in April, with the average maximum temperatures of around 15°C compared to the averages of late September/early October which are usually 22-24°C when the race normally takes place.

Bringing the race forward also decreases the risk of rainfall, with MeteoMotorsport saying that the risk has dropped from 41% to 33%. Although the chances of rain have decreased, the Suzuka circuit is still one of the wettest destinations on the 2024 calendar.

An earlier race ensures that the Japanese GP is being held before the Kansai region’s rainy season, which takes place from the start of June to around mid-July. There has also never been a recorded typhoon this early in the year, further reducing the risk of bad weather affecting the race.

The Kansai region has not witnessed a tropical cyclone this early in the year since records began in 1951, however during that time the area has seen 38 approaching or nearby in the month of October, when the race is usually held. The earliest tropical cyclone in Japan was Typhoon Thelma, which made landfall on 25 April 1956.

Source: Autosport

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